Twister Insights: Impact of Statistics in the NBA

Filed under: by: wj

Statistics impact us in our everyday life. It is the summary of the big picture which concisely expresses facts and understanding into many aspects of our sports viewing and depiction of facts.


The NBA is full of it. From the normal statistics of simple rebounds, assists and field goal percentage to the new-age advanced stats that involve things like +/-, PER, efficient field goal percentage, all to try to better understand the sport I love and most appropriately represents life on a general stage.

However, we tend to fall into the trap into believing that statistics is the one-shot, end-all answers to our questions. We take a particular statistic, and attach a sentiment to it, without looking deeper into what the statistic represents and how it is derived and factors that may affect it. One example is the assist, which I have long contended is one of the most misleading statistic in the NBA

An assist is awarded to the player for the pass that leads to a field goal. So it is automatically assumed that the player with the most assists are the better passers or have better court vision. But is that really true? Is the best pass really the one that leads to the point? How often I have witnessed players that have passed to players that are tightly guarded, but the player still manages to convert it, even if there was another player with a mismatch or a loose guard on him. Does that assist count? What about the pass that leads to another pass for the score? The assist is not awarded to him, but he has contributed to the play that lead to the point, is there no recognition in terms of stats? There are countless passes that are far smarter than the ones that lead to the point: The pass to the outside player to reset the offense, the pass that swings to the overloaded side of a zone defense, the inbounds pass that brought the ball in play.

Furthermore, there have been numerous players that simply passed around the 3 point line to a 3 point shooter that converts the point. That pass is infinitely easier than, lets say, a pass through traffic to a dunking forward, with no pressure on the passer whatsoever since he isnt the one taking the shot. How many players have racked up assists from that one play? (*cough Chris Paul cough*)

There is also the sentiment that the player with more assists are the most unselfish ones. How is that so? Case in point, as a life-long Laker fan, I've watched Kobe throughout his career. He has been the Lakers best passer his whole career, yet many of his detractors call him selfish, especially the time when Shaq left him, due to his plummeting assist numbers. This drop was because of 2 reasons: 1. The coaching staff gave him the green light to score if he felt like it and 2. the passes he still provides at the same rate were missed by decidedly inferior players (Lakers starters at the time were Smush Parker, Kwame Brown and Luke Walton!!) With the return of quality teammates, his assists went back up, and suddenly everyone is calling Kobe unselfish again, despite the fact that he continues to pass at a high rate.

Assists is also more of a by-product of the system the team employs, rather than the player itself. If the team employs an offensive system that revolves around the creative and passing ability of a specific player (i.e. Lebron James, Chris Paul, Steve Nash) their assists would surely go up. In a read-and-react offense such as the Triangle offense that the Lakers employ, assists tend to be spread out evenly, lowering the assists numbers of potentially good passes and increasing the number of poorer passes, and assists tend to be a function of their basketball IQ more than their court vision.

Another example of misleading numbers is all of the defensive statistics. How on earth do you quantify defense? It is supremely difficult to quantify good footwork, timely rotations, help defense and basketball IQ. Blocks could mean the player is jump-happy or opportunistic(*cough Lebron cough*); steals could be a result of matador defense (a gambling form of defense that may bite you in the ass). The best stat i can find is opponent offensive efficiency, yet this is tempered by the fact that there are times the offense will score on you no matter how good a defense you play.

I could go on to other statistics that have misled people (rebounding, point in the paint, PER, +/-) butI am too lazy to. To make matter worse, these numbers are affected by factors such as changes in NBA rules, pace of the game a team prefers to play (lik all D'antoni coached teams are all hyper-fast paced thus producing unreal numbers).

So how do you get an accurate depiction of the game? It is simple: WATCH THE DAMN GAME. Judge for yourself. Teams have won despite losing in numerous statistical categories, because of the hustle that cannot be quantified. The statistics are a good reference for the those that watch the game to understand certain facts deeper and as a summary, but that is all it is: a summary and a poor representation of the game as a whole. Such is a fact you cannot quantify life, it is also close to impossible to quantify basketball.

P.S. Someone read this and asked me about points, and how it can be an end-all stat. It isn't.The first point scored and the game-winning point in a close game have different weightage, though they all awarded the same. A 2-point jumpshot has a different meaning than a 2-point 360 dunk in a pivotal point of the game, and provide different motivational, mental and emotional qualities.

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